Wednesday, September 19th, 2007
Wheat Prices, Bread Prices - What’s the connection?
The price of a bushel of wheat is approaching $9.00. Analysts tell us that the sharp rise in wheat futures in recent weeks is unusual and is credited to serious crop losses in key growing areas as well as consumption exceeding production. As a result, world supplies of wheat are the lowest they’ve been in over 30 years.
The question is – will this, or better yet, should this result in higher prices for foods made from wheat? It’s important to note that wheat only makes up a small percentage of the cost of a loaf of bread and even less in wheat- based cereal. Increases in the price of these products are not because of the price of wheat. Advertising and marketing costs incurred by these brands are much larger especially in products such as snack crackers, cereals and commercial breads, than the actual wheat ingredients themselves. So, it’s safe to say that the price of bread and crackers will not double despite the fact that wheat futures have.
Flour might be a different story. Being closer to the raw commodity, flour prices will be affected first while price increases for other products such as wheat-based snack foods will most likely not occur for a few months. Keep in mind that just because wheat is forecast to rise to almost $9.00/bushel, it is a long time until harvest and prices could go down significantly between now and then.
Let us know if you have seen any differences in the price of foods made from wheat in your local area.
Aaron Harries, Director of Marketing
Kansas Wheat
October 1st, 2007 at 4:00 pm
Thanks for all of the great info! I’ve had fun browsing your site.
I haven’t noticed a price difference lately, but recent natural disasters have inspired my husband and I to stock up on the essentials. After reading your article I’m glad we made the decision! Better to have lots on hand in case the supply keeps going down…
My question:
I would like to buy bulk flours (white and wheat), steel cut oats, and wheatberries for my food storage. What are the best companies to buy excellent quality flours and grains from?
Thanks!
October 1st, 2007 at 4:14 pm
Hello Nicki and thanks for asking. There are so many great milling companies throughout the U.S. There is no “ranking” system of mills. What you would consider to be a good quality may not be true for someone else - it’s all so subjective. Most any store that carries bulk foods would be a good place to start. From there you may want to try an internet search. Good luck!
March 1st, 2008 at 5:55 pm
Hello Aaron, I own a bakery and my flour has risen from $9.50 a 50 lb. bag to $29.50 last week. What are you thinking when you say “wheat only makes up a small percentage of the cost of a loaf of bread “. This increase has added 30 cents to a 99 cent loaf of bread. Almost all basic bread formulas that require at least 55% flour content. I think you need to recheck your facts!
April 10th, 2008 at 8:13 am
At my local Stop N Shop in White Plains, NY, the price of the Stop N Shop branded whole wheat bread (3 loaves per package) went from $3.29 to $4.99 in one week!! I have the receipts!!!!